|Little growth predicted in state revenue forecast|
by Chuck Bennett, Director of Governmental Relations
State economists today predicted little change in Oregon's economic growth and therefore only minimal increases in state revenue collections.
The report presented to a joint session of the Senate and House revenue committees shows only $36 million in total change from the December to the March forecasts. The importance to school districts is that both the Governor and legislative leaders build budgets based on these forecasts.
This morning's forecast is available at the site of the Office of Economic Analysis.
The forecast does not include the agreement reached yesterday between House and Senate leaders to create a Rainy Day Fund using the corporate kicker, which ballooned in this forecast to $315 million from the anticipated $275 million from the last forecast. It also does not include an estimated $152 million that will accrue to the state General Fund from agreed upon changes in the minimum corporate tax increase from $10 to a sliding scale based on gross sales.
The personal income tax kicker is now projected to top $1 billion hitting $1.09 billion.
In addition to the revenue forecast, the report includes information on a variety of economic indicators including: jobs -- down 1,486; personal income -- down $1 billion; and personal income tax colletions down $69 million. But don't head for the ledge, it also shows that previious forecasts from the end of the last regular session two years ago predicted wrong on virtually every major tax revenue estimate they made: Personal income is up $887 million (8.8%); corporate income revenue is up 63% ($315 million); General Fund revenue is up $1.407 billion (12.4%); and total General Fund resources are up 11.9% or nearly $1.4 billion. These are the numbers that explain the kickers or tax rebates that are going back to coporations and individuals due to faulty forecasts.
|This page was last updated on Friday, March 02, 2007 .|