|Oregon state revenue forecast declines 'marginally'|
The December state general fund and lottery revenue forecast, released this morning, is down $106.8 million from the September forecast and $306 million from the close-of-session forecast.
This decline, termed a “marginal downgrade” by state economist Mark McMullen, continues a pattern of slow erosion in the forecast, but still leaves the state with a $169 million ending fund balance. The ending fund balance, originally $446 million, was created by the legislature as a first-line-of defense to buffer potential downturns in the 2011-13 forecast. Any remaining monies in the state’s ending fund balance are intended to be returned to state agencies (not K-12), whose budgets were reduced to create the buffer.
Based on this forecast, there does not appear to be a likelihood of mid-year or mid-biennium cuts to K-12 when the legislature meets in February. Naturally, future forecasts, including the next one in February, will bear watching.
It remains unlikely that the legislature will allocate an additional $56 million to K-12 when they meet in February, as promised at the close of session (if state revenues were sufficient). This means that for 2012-13, districts are expected to receive $25 million less in state funding than they receive this year.
The decline in the 2011-13
forecast is attributable largely to instability in Europe, rather than
performance of the Oregon economy. For example, Oregon income tax
revenues are up by $16 million for 2011, and a number of Oregon business
sectors are growing.
|This page was last updated on Monday, January 09, 2012 .|