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Latest revenue forecast shows slow growth, reduced likelihood of kicker

Chuck Bennett, Director of Governmental Relations

The March Quarterly State Revenue forecast released this morning showed virtually no growth in state funds.

The official number is a net increase over the December forecast of only $14.8 million, or about 0.1 percent. This is good news as this projects biennial revenue growth of approximately 1.2 percent, which is comfortably below the 2 percent kicker threshold.  

The State Economist essentially projects a solid, stable recovery over the next few years but not the significant rebounds along the lines the state saw coming out of the recessions of the 1990s.  

Later this morning staff from the Legislative Revenue Office will be briefing the committee on total State School Fund resources including increased projections in local permanent rate property tax collections.  This report will show an overall increase of just under $100 million in formula revenues from these higher than anticipated property tax collections (not including local option levies or other excluded property tax revenues).  The actual effect of this statewide projected increase on individual districts is not yet clear; we should have more information for you later today.

chuck bennett