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State revenue forecast on track for continued slow and steady growth

This morning’s September Revenue Forecast showed the slow, steady revenue growth that state economists had projected, for both the current biennium and for 2015-17.

State economist Mark McMullen estimated a gain of $70 million in general fund and lottery revenue for 2013-15, compared to the June forecast, and a gain of about $30 million for 2015-17.

McMullen said this forecast represents the most likely economic scenario, but that additional growth above that projected for 2013-15 could trigger a personal income tax kicker, as Oregon’s biennial revenues now stand at about 1.8 percent over the “close of session” forecast.  If revenue growth exceeds 2 percent in the biennium, approximately $300 million (or more) would be returned to taxpayers in 2016, meaning it would impact available revenues in 2015-17, McMullen said.

A full copy of the Legislative Revenue Forecast is available at:

A full copy of the state Economic Forecast is at: